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Реализация инвестиционных проектов в России |
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ОПИСАНИЕ
Subject of research:
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
Goal of research:
EVALUATION OF THE MARKET AND FORECAST OF ITS DEVELOPMENT FOR 2011-2015
Regions of research:
RUSSIA
MOSCOW
SAINT PETERSBURG
Main blocks of research:
VOLUME OF RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
RUSSIAN MARKET OF OFFICE REAL ESTATE
RUSSIAN MARKET OF RETAIL REAL ESTATE
RUSSIAN MARKET OF HOTEL REAL ESTATE
RUSSIAN MARKET OF WAREHOUSING REAL ESTATE
STATE REGULATION
TRENDS OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
PROFILES OF THE LARGEST CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES
FORECAST OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENT FOR 2012-2015
Market segmentation:
BY THE SEGMENTS OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
BY REGIONS OF RF
BY YEARS
Profiles are made for the following largest Russian enterprises
«STROYGAZMONTAZH» LLC
"RZHDSTROY" OJSC
"STROY-TREST" OJSC
"ORION-STROY" LLC
"HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC
The sources of information, which are used in the research:
Federal State Statistics Service
The Ministry of Economic Development of RF
The Ministry of Transport of FR
The Federal Customs Service
The Federal Tax Service
Industry experts’ estimates
Reports on retail sales
Data of the main players of the branch
Data of professional associations
Printed and electronic publications of the branch
The research contains 46 schedules, 12 diagrams and 34 tables.
EXTRACTS FROM RESEARCH
RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
The Russian real estate market increased in the first six months of 2000s. Until 2006 this development was relatively gradual and the growth rates of the volume of the commissioned buildings, though still growing, remained within 15% (the average growth rate for 2002-2006 was ***%).
In 2007-2008 the market volume suddenly increased. The reason for this was the combination of availability of relatively affordable credits in 2004-2006 that stimulated investment to the construction sector as well and the extension of mortgage programs and increasing living standards and an overall economic growth, which provided greater demand for real estate. After it reached its peak in 2008 the volume of new real estate commissioning started decreasing gradually, that was caused by the gradual completion of previously initiated projects and lack of the new ones.
According to preliminary estimates, in 2011 the market volume was minimal during the last five years that was caused by a very modest amount of construction, which began in 2008-2010 and amounted to *** mln. m2.
RUSSIAN MARKET OF OFFICE REAL ESTATE
Real estate commissioning
The volume of modern office real estate space was rapidly increasing in Moscow in 2006-2011. For 2007-2011 the total area of such offices increased by *** times, having reached *** mln. sq. m. in 2011. Their average growth rate amounted to ***%.
When the financial crisis began the market development has slowed as a result of the freezing of a substantial part of the projects, which were designed for the greater availability of financial flows from their owners and the high rents that are no longer supported by the market.
Cost of renting
The average lease rate, which reached its peak in 2007-2008 during the economic peak, decreased by about a third with the beginning of the crisis. In 2010-2011 a gradual increase in rental rates began again, but it was less steep than that in the period of inflation of the economy in 2006-2008 and in general it was corresponded to the dynamics of operating expenses after adjusting for inflation and other costs.
After the lease rates reached its maximum in 2009 their next increase was, firstly, smooth without sudden changes that were characteristic of former 3-4 years, and, secondly, much smaller than in previous years - in a segment of class A offices an average annual growth was about ***%, %, class B - about ***% in 2010-2011. By the way, the last one was due to the relatively low "basic" price level (the level of 2009), after that the rapid compensatory growth of the market followed. In А segment there wasn’t such a growth because the reducing of rent cost began a year earlier here and was relatively smooth.
The lease rates are expected to increase gradually in the nearest future, now they are restrained by an excess of available office space and post-crisis state of the economy, which did not completely recover.
After significant fluctuations in operating expenses in 2007-2009, caused by market adaptation to the rapidly changing environment, the growth rate declined to ***% per annum, that corresponds to all-Russian inflation on the whole.
RUSSIAN MARKET OF WAREHOUSING REAL ESTATE
For 2006-2011 the total volume of warehouse space increased by about *** mln. sq. m in Moscow, having increased *** mln. sq. m. in 2011. The average annual increase of the area amounted to ***%.
The warehouses of class A accounted for the most of this increase, which increased in this period by *** mln. sq. m. Class B warehouses were commissioned much more slowly and in six years they increased by about *** ths. sq. m.
TRENDS OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
Common trends of commercial real estate market
The Russian market of commercial real estate may be divided into two geographical segments: the capital and the regional ones. At the same time in some segments even the capital markets can be called «provincial» (for example, the segment of warehouse real estate in Saint Petersburg is distinct by low saturation of modern real estate and it is comparatively different from the regional markets).
The capital market is characterized by a high degree of penetration of modern business models, a high social standard of living and a comparatively high demand for related services. By the sum of these items the capital markets are close to the western ones, that makes it relatively easy to adopt the Western standards without major changes to apply them to Russian conditions.
In regions these conditions are not fulfilled: the volume of potential consumers here is too small, and the level of their income does not allow creating capital inflows, required to maintain the infrastructure in such facilities. That’s why the main feature of the regional real estate market is its standards’ adaptation to the conditions of lower finance, which manifests itself in the changing business processes and the functionality of such facilities in accordance with the environment. Various forms, which are taken by these changes, are of interest for not only investors in the medium term by the implementation of specific projects but they can also provide the necessary expertise for long-term innovative development of the market.
ОГЛАВЛЕНИЕ
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
LIST OF SCHEDULES, DIAGRAMS, TABLES AND SCHEMES
1.GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA
1.1. Population in Russia
Population size
The largest cities
Social standard of living
Economic activity
1.2. Economic situation
Dynamics of economic development
Stability of state budget
1.3. International Russian position
RF share in the population of the world
2. WORKING PROCEDURE
2.1. The description of the market
Classification of real estate
Classification of office real estate
Classification of retail real estate
Classification of hotel real estate
Classification of warehousing real estate
Main notions
2.2. The used classifications
Classification as per All-Russian Classification of Products on types of economic activities
2.3. Methodological guidelines for the research
The considered classes of real estate
The used data sources
3. RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
3.1. Market volume in physical terms
Volume of real estate commissioning
Real estate commissioning by classes
Regional structure of building commissioning
3.2. Market volume in money terms
Volume of proceeds by years
Structure of proceeds by federal districts
Regional structure of proceeds
4. RUSSIAN MARKET OF OFFICE REAL ESTATE
4.1. Moscow market
Real estate commissioning
Cost of renting
4.2. Saint Petersburg market
Real estate commissioning
Cost of renting
4.3. Regional markets
5. RUSSIAN MARKET OF RETAIL REAL ESTATE
5.1. Russian retail market
Market volume
Regional structure of the market
5.2. Moscow market of retail real estate
Volume of real estate
Use of space
5.3. Saint Petersburg market of retail real estate
Volume of real estate
Use of space
5.4. Regional markets
6. RUSSIAN MARKET OF HOTEL REAL ESTATE
6.1. Russian market
Volume of real estate
Proceeds by regions
Use of space
6.2. Moscow market
Volume of real estate
6.3. Saint Petersburg market
Volume of real estate
7. RUSSIAN MARKET OF WAREHOUSING REAL ESTATE
7.1. Moscow market
Volume of real estate
Use of space
7.2. Saint Petersburg market
Volume of real estate
Use of space
8. STATE REGULATION OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Legislation changes
Social burden
Hotel real estate
Moscow real estate market
9. TRENDS OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
Common trends of commercial real estate market
Warehousing real estate
Office real estate
Hotel real estate
Retail real estate
10. THE LARGEST COMPANIES OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
10.1 Real estate developers
10.2 Audit and consulting companies
11. PROFILES OF THE LARGEST CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES
11.1. "STROYGAZMONTAZH" LLC
Reference information
Types of activity
Balance sheet
Profit and loss statement
Cash flow statement
Financials of activity
11.2. "RZHDSTROY" OJSC
Reference information
Types of activity
Balance sheet
Profit and loss statement
Cash flow statement
Financials of activity
11.3. "STROY-TREST" OJSC
Reference information
Types of activity
Balance sheet
Profit and loss statement
Cash flow statement
Financials of activity
11.4. "ORION-STROY" LLC
Reference information
Types of activity
Balance sheet
Profit and loss statement
Financials of activity
11.5. "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC
Reference information
Types of activity
Production volume
Balance sheet
Profit and loss statement
Cash flow statement
Financials of activity
12. FORECAST OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENT FOR 2012-2015
12.1. Real estate commissioning
12.2. Market development program
ABOUT INTESCO RESEARCH GROUP
ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ
List of schedules:
1. Population in Russia in 2000, 2005, 2010 and its forecast for 2015 and 2020, ths. peop.
2. Dynamics of actual disposable money profit and its annual growth rate in 2000-2010, %
3. Dynamics of employed and unemployed population number in RF in 2006-2010, ths. peop.
4. Dynamics of unemployed population number in economically active population by federal districts of RF in 2006-2010, %
5. Dynamics of RF GDP in the prices of 2003 in 2002-2010, bln. rub.
6. Fixed capital investment in RF in 2001-2010
7. Consolidated budget surplus /deficit in RF in 2006-2010, %
8. Dynamics of RF total external debt, in 2001-2010
9. Consumer price index in RF in 2001-2010, %
10. RF share in the population of the world in 2000-2010 and its forecast up to 2100
11. RF share in the world GDP in 2000-2100 and its forecast for 2011-2016, %
12. Dynamics of building commissioning in RF in 2001-2011*, mln. m2
13. Volume of proceeds from construction in RF in 2006-2011*, bln. rub.
14. Dynamics of class А and В office space in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
15. Dynamics of class А and В office commissioning in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
16. Dynamics of average lease rates and operating expenses for class A and B offices in Moscow in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m.
17. Dynamics of class А and В office space in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
18. Dynamics of class А and В office commissioning in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
19. Dynamics of average lease rates and operating expenses for class A and B offices in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m.
20. Dynamics of volume of retail sale proceeds in Russia in 2006-2010, bln. rub.
21. Space dynamics of high-class shopping malls in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
22. Dynamics of high-class shopping malls commissioning in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
23. Dynamics of lease rate and share of vacant space in high-class shopping malls in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
24. Space dynamics of high-class shopping malls in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
25. Dynamics of high-class shopping malls commissioning in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
26. Schedule 27. Dynamics of a number of hotels and hotel room capacity in Russia in 2001-2011
28. Dynamics of the capital share in the hotel room facility of Russia in 2006-2011, %
29. Dynamics of a number of hotels and hotel room capacity in Russia in 2001-2011, pieces
30. Hotel occupancy rate in Russia, Moscow and Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, %
31. Volume dynamics of a number of hotel rooms in Moscow in 2006-2011, units
32. Volume dynamics of a commissioned number of hotel rooms in Moscow in 2006-2011, units
33. Volume dynamics of a number of hotel rooms in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, units
34. Volume dynamics of a commissioned number of hotel rooms in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, units
35. Dynamics of warehouse space in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
36. Dynamics of warehouse commissioning by classes in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
37. Dynamics of absorption of warehouse space by classes in Moscow in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
38. Dynamics of average lease rates for high-class warehouses in Moscow in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m. per year
39. Dynamics of share of vacant high-class warehouse space in Moscow in 2006-2011, %
40. Dynamics of warehouse space in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
41. Dynamics of warehouse commissioning by classes in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
42. Dynamics of absorption of warehouse space by classes in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, ths. sq. m.
43. Dynamics of average lease rates for high-class warehouses in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m. per year
44. Dynamics of share of vacant high-class warehouse space in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, %
45. Dynamics of buildings’ commissioning on the area of Russia in 2006-2011* and its forecast for 2012-2015, mln. sq. m.
46. Dynamics of real estate commissioning and commercial real estate in RF in 2001-2011, plan and forecast for 2012-2020, mln. m2
List of diagrams:
1. Dynamics of the premises share in the total volume of construction in RF in 2001-2011*, %
2. Structure dynamics of non-residential building commissioning by classes in RF in 2001-2011*, %
3. Structure dynamics of building commissioning by FD of RF in 2006-2010, %
4. Structure dynamics of real estate commissioning by regions of RF in 2006-2010, %
5. Structure of proceeds from construction by FD of FR in 2006-2011*, %
6. Volume of proceeds from construction by FD of RF in 2006-2011*, bln. rub.
7. Structure of proceeds from construction by the main regions of RF in 2006-2011*, %
8. Volume of proceeds from construction by regions of RF in 2006-2011*, bln. rub.
9. Structure dynamics of retail sale proceeds by the largest regions of RF in 2006-2010, %
10. Structure dynamics of proceeds from hotel activity by the largest regions of RF in 2006-2010, %
11. Structure dynamics of warehouse space in Moscow by classes in 2006-2011, %
12. Structure dynamics of warehouse space in Saint Petersburg by classes in 2006-2011, %
List of tables:
1. Population of the largest Russian cities according to the National Census in 2010, ths. peop.
2. Volume of building commissioning by classes in RF in 2006-2011*, ths. m2
3. Volume of real estate commissioning by regions of RF in 2006-2010, ths. m2
4. Dynamics of average lease rates and operating expenses for class A and B offices in Moscow in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m.
5. Dynamics of average lease rates and operating expenses for class A and B offices in Saint Petersburg in 2006-2011, USD/sq. m.
6. Structure dynamics of retail sale proceeds by regions of RF in 2006-2010, bln. rub.
7. Volume of proceeds from hotel activity by regions of RF in 2006-2010, ths. rub.
8. Proceeds of the largest construction companies in Russia in 2006-2010, ths. rub.
9. Proceeds of the largest companies, providing brokerage services, related to real estate, in Russia in 2006-2010, ths. rub.
10. Shareholders of "STROYGAZMONTAZH" LLC
11. Balance sheet of "STROYGAZMONTAZH" LLC, ths. rub.
12. Profit and loss statement of "STROYGAZMONTAZH" LLC, ths. rub.
13. Cash flow statement of "STROYGAZMONTAZH "LLC, ths. rub.
14. Dynamics of financial activity of "STROYGAZMONTAZH" LLC
15. Shareholders of "RZHDSTROY" OJSC
16. Balance sheet of "RZHDSTROY" OJSC , ths. rub.
17. Profit and loss statement of "RZHDSTROY" OJSC , ths. rub.
18. Cash flow statement of "RZHDSTROY" OJSC , ths. rub.
19. Dynamics of financial activity of "RZHDSTROY" OJSC
20. Shareholders of "STROY-TREST" OJSC
21. Balance sheet of "STROY-TREST" OJSC, ths. rub.
22. Profit and loss statement of "STROY-TREST" OJSC, ths. rub.
23. Cash flow statement of "STROY-TREST" OJSC, ths. rub.
24. Dynamics of financial activity of "STROY-TREST" OJSC
25. Shareholders of "ORION-STROY" LLC
26. Balance sheet of "ORION-STROY" LLC, ths. rub.
27. Profit and loss statement of "ORION-STROY" LLC, ths. rub.
28. Dynamics of financial activity of "ORION-STROY" LLC
29. Shareholders of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC
30. Production volume of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC
31. Balance sheet of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC, ths. rub.
32. Profit and loss statement of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC, ths. rub.
33. Cash flow statement of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC, ths. rub.
34. Dynamics of financial activity of "HOUSE-BUILDING FACTORY-1" OJSC"
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